Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
